Predetermination of monsoon is always an important subject for Indian weather forecasting as it is directly related to fulfilling the woes of farmers. This year, a renowned researcher gave the opinion of early onset of monsoon in the country. Although the initial monsoon forecast has not been prepared by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) till now, but researchers have started predetermination of monsoon on their own level. According to PV Joseph, ex-director of the IMD, the onset of monsoon can take place by May 25 over the Kerala.
Joseph says that as the country experienced Indian Ocean Dipole last year in the duration between September to November, the occurrence of El Nino is expected this year. This may cause lesser rainfall this year. Early onset of monsoon should not be connected with normal or excessive rainfall because this doesn’t mean that it will perform well during the four months of rain. There is a chance of pre-monsoon rain peak phenomenon this year with an extension of the band of raining cloud in Kerala.
As Joseph is known for his pioneer work on the phenomenon, his forecasting should be near to the reality. Even, the Meteorological department consults with him regarding monsoon forecasting for his good understanding of these matters.
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It has been said by IMD on Thursday that building of low-pressure area in the Bay of Bengal might continue to depress further. There are chances for this depression to be grown into a cyclone. This suggests that El Nino conditions can set in during the second half of monsoon. India may have normal monsoon this year.